Thursday, January 31, 2008

The Huckaboom is OVER

Please for all that is conservative PLEASE drop out of the race Mike.

You're a jovial guy and all but seriously at this point in time you are just spoiling the vote. You're splitting the conservatives down the middle and putting McCain in the front.

You are NOT going to win the primaries, you are NOT going to win the General Election. PLEASE bow out now so that Romney and McCain can have their race.

Every day you stay in makes it more and more likely come January '09 we will be anointing Queen Hillary instead of electing a conservative to the White House.

Everyone else has read the tea leaves and figured it out except you...well and Ron Paul but he's nutty as a loon anyways.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Florida dropouts

Well looks like McCain takes Florida on the GOP side putting him out in front. Who would have thought months ago when McCain was thinking about dropping out due to campaign financial problems (that CFR has gotta hurt) that he would be on top going into Super Tuesday.

There has been mixed reports that independents were voting in the Republican primary though. Not sure if that effects anything but the GOP was supposed to be a closed primary meaning that only registered Republicans could vote. Polls show most independents vote McCain.

Rumor mill today is that Rudy is going to drop out and endorse McCain. I'd say not good for Romney except Rudy doesn't have much support.

Hillary took Florida but since Florida jumped cut ahead in line the DNC stripped the DEM Florida delegates. Hillary of course is trying to get the delegates reinstated...that would put her ahead in pledged delegates. So dirty deeds on both sides.

John Edwards is going to drop out today leaving the DEM race between Hillary and Obama.

Delegate count updated:

GOP (needs 1191)

McCain 95
Romney 67
Huckabee 26
Paul 6

DEM (needs 2025)

Obama 63
Hillary 48

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Democrat joins 2nd Amentment Caucus

Congressman Christopher Carney (D-10) became a member of the bipartisan Congressional Second Amendment Caucus, which is dedicated to the right of lawful individuals to own firearms as stated in the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

“As an avid sportsman, I value the time I spend taking my own children hunting. As a Member of Congress, I know that we must fight to preserve the Constitutional right for individual citizens to keep and bear arms. Hunting and shooting sports are valued traditions in Pennsylvania, and I will always fight to protect the Constitutional right to bear arms,” said Congressman Carney.

The Second Amendment Caucus is opposed to the banning of firearms, their accessories, their manufacture and their importation, and recognizes the right of lawful citizens to carry a weapon both at home and while traveling the nation.

“I have been vigilant to the assaults hurled upon the Second Amendment during my time in office and I joined the caucus to continue the fight,” continued Carney. “The Constitution is clear on this—Americans have the right to bear arms, and I will fight to protect it.”
- source Pocono News

Well that's close Chris but you forget about something. First the 2nd Amendment isn't about hunting and sports (target and trap) usage. It's about people being secure on their own property from the bad guys and a tyrannical government.

You also neglected to mention this tidbit:

Chris opposes the over-regulation of guns owned by responsible Americans. Firearms safety education is an essential aspect of gun ownership, helping create a culture that respects the rights of gun owners and acknowledges their responsibilities. Chris supports a waiting period for handguns and restrictions on certain types of "special" ammunition to help ensure that neither falls into the hands of criminals or terrorists.
- source Chris Carney on Gun Control

Criminals and terrorists both are going to manage to get their hands on handguns and ammunition no matter what kind of laws you pass to keep them out of the hands of law abiding citizens.

Thanks for the help Chris, but you need to go back to 2nd Amendment school for another semester or two.

Florida Primary

Here we go.

Latest GOP polls putting Florida at a dead heat between Romney and McCain. Rudy and Huck tied for third. So far this election cycle the GOP polls have been almost spot on.

Florida is a winner take all State with 57 delegates up for grabs. That means even if a candidate wins by only 1 vote all 57 delegates go to him. Seems Florida is yet again going to be a huge factor in the elections.

I'm not even going to venture a guess on Florida. McCain did get a late surge partially due to his dishonest claim that Romney supported a surrender date in Iraq...McCain's advert left off the next sentence in Romney's interview where Romney point blank said "I would veto any bill that contained time tables for withdrawal."

For Romney's part he has been gaining momentum ever since Fred Thompson dropped out.

If Romney wins he'll probably have the momentum to take Super Tuesday.

If McCain wins that puts McCain ahead but Romney can hold on till at least Super Tuesday.

If Rudy or Huck win then it becomes an even closer three way race.

If anyone but Rudy wins then Rudy is done.

Stay tuned...

Monday, January 28, 2008

President Hinckley dies at 97

In a previous post I mentioned that I was LDS.

Yesterday at his home the President of my church, Gorgon B. Hinckley died.

Obiturary found here: LDS President Gordon B. Hinckley dies at age 97

Thomas S. Monson will probably be called as the new President of the LDS Church.

The Prophet is dead. Long live the Prophet.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Mitt Happens - I'm a Flip-Flopper

Mitt Romney is a flipper.

On several issues (okay two, pro-life, 2nd Amendment) Mitt has flipped his views since running for governor of Massachusetts. Both issues he has moved to the right on. Mitt has flipped, but I haven't seen no flop.

I am a flip-flopper.

When Mitt Romney announced his candidacy I originally said "this is my guy...". I knew him from his bailing out of the doomed SLC Olympics and turning it into one of the best Olympics ever. I knew he was a wildly successful businessman.

But the caviet to that was I also said "unless Fred Thompson gets into the race." Now this was well before Fred jumped in, well before rumors started that Fred might jump in. I was one of the first few hundred that jumped onto the "Draft Fred" bandwagon.

Fred dropped out yesterday, so I have flopped back to Romney.

Expect lots of Romney commentary. If Romney isn't your guy well sorry, deal with it. This is my blog I say what I want.

More on the Nevada vote

In the interest of full disclosure I admit I am LDS. However I keep my religion out of politics and my politics out of religion. The next few posts though I'm going to have to dwell into religion and Romney.

The first of these posts is further looking at the 94% of the Mormon vote that Romney got in Nevada. I'm sure at this point in time (now that we are down to three effectively) Utah, Idaho, Arizona and California LDS will follow suit. States that have already voted we don't have as specific demographic information that we had in Nevada so one can't say if Wyoming for example got 94% of the LDS vote going Romney.

Take your average Mormon who is politically active and would vote in the primaries.

Now you have the front runner choices of Romney, McCain, and Huckabee. Lets say for arguement sake that Romney is NOT a Mormon.

Now who does the Mormon vote for?

Answer is still Romney.

Why? Because Huck and McCain both have record of anti-Mormon rhetoric. Huck posing the fake question of "Don't Mormons believe Jesus and Satan are brothers" and McCain's campaign eluding to the Mormon church supporting Hamas and treating women like the Taliban.

Imo McCain's campaign statements were worse then Huck's supposedly honest(yea right) question.

Enter Romney who hasn't said anything about other candidates religions at all and recognizes that if he was President he would need the prayers of all faiths.

Romney LDS or not out of the three front runners GOP LDS voters are going to vote Romney because of the treatment the other two have given the religion.

Sure there was still Ron Paul, Rudy, or Fred Thompson to vote for but come any of these guys really have a shot? Incidentally Ron Paul did get more of the LDS vote then Rudy, Huck, or Fred combined.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Fred Thompson out :(

"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people." - Fred Thompson

Well it was short lived but Fred went All-In in South Carolina and came up short.

No Vote

We'll see what that does to the Florida Primaries, Jan 29th '08.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

The (non) Mormon factor - Romney wins Nevada


Romney handily won the Nevada Caucus on the GOP side. It didn't take long (all of about an hour) for the mainstream media and blogs to point out that the "Mormon vote" gave Romney the victory.

This is not only incorrect it's also dangerous reporting.

Here is some math on the numbers. 44,315 votes were counted. 51% of those for Romney at 22,646. Source: The Nevada GOP caucus. According to entrance polls Mormons made up 26% of the vote and voted a resounding 95% for Romney. That's about where the MSM and blogs stop at claiming it was the Mormon vote that caused Romney to win.

Lets look at the numbers.

11522 Mormons voted. Of them 10946 voted Romney (the others split McCain and Paul for about 288 each).

If no Mormons showed up at all Romney still would have won:

#1 Romney: 11700
#2 Paul: 5796
#3 McCain: 5362

If the same amount of Mormons voted but split in percentages Romney still would have won:

Total votes (without Mormons)

Percents (without Mormons)
Romney: 35.68
Paul: 17.67
McCain: 16.35

11522 Mormons voted split on percents and added to candidates:

#1 Romney: 15811
#2 Paul: 7832
#3 McCain: 7246

Everyone else needs the Mormon vote, Romney doesn't.

The only way Romney would have lost is if greater than 52% of Mormons voted for a single candidate BESIDES Romney, and it would have had to have been Ron Paul. McCain would have needed 58% of the Mormon vote. That's IF the other Mormon voters ALSO did not vote for Romney. Further down more of the vote you need. For irony, Hunter needed 94% of the Mormon vote to beat Romney. (Hunter dropped out of the race before the SC primaries were closed).

South Carolina:

Nothing really here unexpected. McCain beat Huck. Fred came in third again.

Fred Thompson's Mother is in the hospital currently, don't know how serious. Fred went back to Tennessee and will decide from there to stay in the race or drop out.


Early in the day Nevada was called for Obama with 83% of the vote. As precincts reported in Hillary gained ground and ended up winning with 51%. One of these days the media will learn not to declare a winner until they are REALLY REALLY sure.

Delegate count updated:

Romney 66
McCain 38
Huckabee 26
Thompson 8
Paul 6
Rudy 1


Obama 38
Clinton 36
Edwards 18

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Playing the Numbers

Delegate counts again updated in various places. Even CNN is stripping delegates now. Updated sidebar.

GOP (needs 1191)
Romney 46
McCain 19
Huckabee 15
Thompson 6
Paul 2
Hunter 1
Rudy 0

DEM (needs 2025)
Obama 25
Hillary 24
Edwards 18

Michigan Primaries - The Morning After

Commentary reports starting to come in. Last time I mentioned it I was talking about how commentators were telling Mitt Romney to drop out because he couldn't win (even though he was first in delegate count).

Now commentators have a new spin on Romney...he won Michigan because there was not a credible candidate on the Democrat side so in protest many Democrats voted Republican specifically for Romney. The argument here is of course that Romney is a Democrat and not a Republican.

No mention of course about John "I thought about joining the Democrat party in 2004" McCain.

Of the moderate Republicans (RINO's to hard core 100% conservatives) on the ballots Romney is actually the least RINO of them all.

Makes me wonder if McCain had won the Michigan primary if the commentators would have been talking about Leiberman telling independants and democrats to vote McCain or if they still would have been telling Romney to drop out because he can't win (Romney still would have been in the lead for delegates with a second place showing).

Current delegate count:

GOP (needs 1191)
Romney 36
McCain 19
Huckabee 19
Thompson 6
Paul 2
Hunter 1
Rudy 0

DEM (needs 2025)
Obama 25
Hillary 24
Edwards 18

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Michigan Primary - The evening of

Results for Michigan are in:



I miss-spoke in my post this morning. Clinton was the only major candidate on the Dem ballot. The choices were between her, uncommited, Kucinich, Dodd, and Gravel. Even being the only major candidate Clinton only managed about 56% with Uncommited coming in at 39%.

Delegate counts updated on right sidebar.

Next stop: Nevada and South Carolina, Jan 19

Blizzard politicians - Ghost Wolf reversal

Back in the gaming world Blizzard is up to it's usual tricks.

See in patch 2.3 of World of Warcraft a new area opened up and allowed a cool new wolf to be tamed by Hunters. Problem is that only level 70's could tame it and the wolf was only level 30. Had to be 70 to get certain equipment needed. Also needed help from a friend or so.

Well of course hunters were concerned that the pet might not stick around (much like other rare pets) but a post at the Euro Forums aleaved that concern:

While this feature of the Grimtotem Spirit Guide wasn’t exactly intended, it was agreed by the development team that this is a fun use of in-game mechanics, and we therefore have no plans to address this issue - it will still be possible in future for everyone who wishes to tame this NPC to do so. :)

I hope this alleviates your concerns!

So people went about happily taming their Ghost Wolves.

(image stolen without permission from

Well now (as usual with Blizzard) we see a complete reversal by Blizzard-US and removal of the Ghost Wolf on 1/14/08 in a STEALTH hot fix. Drysc posted the details over at the US-WoW forums:

Through a hotfix we’ve recently removed the ability to tame a Grimtotem Spirit Guide. Players who have already gone through the trouble of taming the creature will be able to keep them unchanged. This hotfix only removes the possibility to tame this creature from here on.

The removal of the spirit guide has been debated within design discussions for a while now as to what impact the pet and its precedent has on the game.
The unintended nature of the taming, the undead status of the guide, appearance of the wolf in relation to the feel of the hunter class, and the complex processes of taming were all issues touched upon and discussed.

Ultimately the discussions brought us to the conclusion that this should not be a permanent addition to the pet selection available to hunters; however, those that have already tamed them should be allowed to keep them due to their efforts in obtaining one.

This is pretty much identical to what happened with the Serpents in Zul Furrak and Zul Gurrob before they were removed.

1. Yes can keep taming
2. Removed taming ability
3. Removed ability to feed pet (stuck in stable stasis or lose it)
4. Put similar pet in expansion that is easy to get so any joker can have thereby negating it's rare factor.

So how does this tie in to politicians?

Easy during the election say one thing to get people to support you, then after the elections go the flip opposite direction leaving the people that supported you with nothing but an empty sack of crap.

Thanks Blizzard.

By the way I have my wolf, just waiting for another few weeks when Blizzard makes it so I can't feed him.

Michigan Primary - The morning of

Projections for Michigan today:


This is gonna be close. McCain might have gotten a bump from NH and could pull of a win here. Polls have Romney leading but they are WELL within the margin of error. Think average is about 2pts ahead with if the margins fail could up McCain as far as 6pnts in the lead. Course we saw from New Hampshire on the Dem side that polls can be VERY VERY wrong.


The last week has not been good for Clinton at all. Just when she gets ahead again she opens her yap and says something stupid. Really the best campaign Clinton could run right now is name recognition. Edwards should do well in Michigan playing his class warfare game. Michigan is a pretty blue collar State which Edwards pretends to fit in with...while he's not getting $1000 hair cuts.

Delegate count games

If you look at the news web sites the delegate counts are off. I mentioned this in an earlier post.

CNN's count is showing pledged delegates, so in my book is accurate. Other places are counting unpledged in their numbers and putting them where they think they will go. Problem with counting unpledged delegates is the numbers will go stray depending on who is counting and who is reporting.

MSNBC is taking ALL of Thompson's, McCain's and Ron Paul's delegates and 5 of Romney's Delegates (these are all pledged BTW) at Iowa and putting them in Huckabee's bucket. Other States seem to be correct.

Fox News is reporting Real Clear Politics' numbers. They seem to be shuffling around the unpledged delegates only (unlike MSNBC who is stripping pledged delegates).

If you look at pledged or shuffle around unpledged then Romney is in the lead for the GOP. It's only if you start stripping pledged that Huck is in the lead.

Michigan Primary today. Results this evening sometime.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Fred Swinging - Target Huckabee

Caught this on YouTube, didn't watch the debate. Fred opens up on Huckabee.

Where has this Fred been for the last two months?

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Delegate changes?

AP is reporting that the delegate counts are being mixed up. Several sources have my count (including CNN, Reliable Politics and Powerline). However an AP article is putting the count at:

Huckabee 31
Romeny 19
McCain 7

Clinton 187 delegates
Obama with 89
Edwards with 50

Now without a credit or source on this article I'm going to take it with a grain of salt. Figure the AP wants Huck and Clinton as the nominees and they'll work to get there. We've seen plenty of false stories so far and the actual race has been on for only a week now.

San Fran gets guns back

The California State Court of Appeals announced today their decision to overturn one of the most restrictive gun bans in the country, following a legal battle by attorneys for the National Rifle Association (NRA) and a previous court order against the San Francisco Board of Supervisors.
This is a great victory for California, specifically those in the San Francisco area.

Linkage: SF Chronicle

Pushing the dropout rate

So you've got this candidate who has gone through three primaries. He's placed second, first, then second. Doing so he's grabbed the most delegate count of any of the candidates. The candidate is in the lead, so what do bloggers, news, and pundits say?

That Romney should drop out now. What the fuck. That's all I have to say.

I've counted probably seven different news articles today saying that since Romney didn't place first in Iowa or New Hampshire he's losing and should just drop out now. Idiocy. You would think these so called journalists and professionals would just take the 20 seconds to look at what matters....the delegate count.

Now I'm a Fred supporter (Romney is my third choice after Hunter) but I'm also a realist. Since when does the LEADER of a race drop out.

Come on people grow a damned brain.

Even if Mitt places second in Michigan (which isn't a true winner-take-all) he's still going to be in the lead in delegates.

If this rate continues by the time Super Tuesday rolls around Mitt will have a handy lead and ready to take on Rudy. Rudy btw is doing among the worst but nobody is calling for him to drop out. Even Hunter and Paul have more delegates then Rudy does.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Aftermath - New Hampshire

Well Hillary's crying game turned out positive for her instead of it being the Howard (Yeeeaaar) Dean of 2008.

McCain as expected came up first in New Hampshire but not convinced he's going anywhere else.




That puts Romney ahead for delegates and Obama/Clinton pretty much tied (1 delegate difference).

Running Total Delegates:

GOP (needs 1191):
Romney 24
Huckabee 18
McCain 10

DEM (needs 2025):
Obama 25
Clinton 24
Edwards 18

Next stop January 15 in Michigan (Winner take all) both parties.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

New Hampshire Primaries

Continuing primary predictions


Thompson will show third again, but the press will skip him and report on Huck and Rudy's placing. Expect Huck to finish third to last from here on out in the primaries



Hillary may have placed second in New Hampshire except for her almost crying breakdown

Friday, January 04, 2008

Fallout - Iowa

Supposedly people voted for Huckabee because he is pro-life. Well so is Fred Thompson, but Thompson only came in third and not a 10% leading first.

Supposedly people voted for Huckabee because he is against gay marriage. Well so is Fred Thompson, but Thompson only came in third and not a 10% leading first.

Supposedly people voted for Huckabee because he is a strong supporter of the 2nd Amendment. Well so is Fred Thompson, but Thompson only came in third and not a 10% leading first.

Supposedly people voted for Huckabee because he is for changing the tax code. Well so is Fred Thompson, but Thompson only came in third and not a 10% leading first. I don’t think this was a big voter decision issue but whatever it’s there.

After those issues Huckabee really has nothing, that’s all he’s got. Fred Thompson is the real conservative in the race (yes Duncan Hunter too, but I’m holding out for a Thompson/Hunter ticket).

Even if someone is voting single issue on pro-life they still have Fred to go to, guess Fred just isn’t Christian enough. Every issue that Huck is conservative on Fred Thompson (or someone else) is also conservative on. Everywhere else Huck loses and Fred Thompson wins.

I submit that a large portion of people voted for Huckabee because he is a Baptist Minister and not because of his actual stances. Past pro-life and Baptist Minister a lot of people didn’t even ask.

Welcome to the Carter Part Deux: The GOP Edition.

This is the danger of voting for or against someone's religion. You become blinded to issues that religion does not cover.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Iowa caucus results

Results are in:



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Pregame is over. Game On! Iowa Caucus is today!

Well the pre-game is over. Today the game starts in Iowa.

Starting Lineups (alpha order)
Visitors Dems: Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson.

Home GOP: Rudy Giulani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson.

Predictions on both sides top three in order:
Dems: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards
GOP: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson

I think Fred Thompson is going to do better then expected by passing up McCain and Rudy. Mitt and Mike will come in first and second as currently that's where the fighting and free advertisements are.

After Iowa I expect people that missed him to take a second look at Fred. If Fred can beat Rudy and McCain then he'll have perceived traction with the voters and pick up other States in the primaries.

If Fred comes in last (or is beat by Ron Paul at all) his campaign is pretty much done, and so is the GOP.

Go Fred (and bring Hunter with you)!