Sunday, January 20, 2008

The (non) Mormon factor - Romney wins Nevada


Romney handily won the Nevada Caucus on the GOP side. It didn't take long (all of about an hour) for the mainstream media and blogs to point out that the "Mormon vote" gave Romney the victory.

This is not only incorrect it's also dangerous reporting.

Here is some math on the numbers. 44,315 votes were counted. 51% of those for Romney at 22,646. Source: The Nevada GOP caucus. According to entrance polls Mormons made up 26% of the vote and voted a resounding 95% for Romney. That's about where the MSM and blogs stop at claiming it was the Mormon vote that caused Romney to win.

Lets look at the numbers.

11522 Mormons voted. Of them 10946 voted Romney (the others split McCain and Paul for about 288 each).

If no Mormons showed up at all Romney still would have won:

#1 Romney: 11700
#2 Paul: 5796
#3 McCain: 5362

If the same amount of Mormons voted but split in percentages Romney still would have won:

Total votes (without Mormons)

Percents (without Mormons)
Romney: 35.68
Paul: 17.67
McCain: 16.35

11522 Mormons voted split on percents and added to candidates:

#1 Romney: 15811
#2 Paul: 7832
#3 McCain: 7246

Everyone else needs the Mormon vote, Romney doesn't.

The only way Romney would have lost is if greater than 52% of Mormons voted for a single candidate BESIDES Romney, and it would have had to have been Ron Paul. McCain would have needed 58% of the Mormon vote. That's IF the other Mormon voters ALSO did not vote for Romney. Further down more of the vote you need. For irony, Hunter needed 94% of the Mormon vote to beat Romney. (Hunter dropped out of the race before the SC primaries were closed).

South Carolina:

Nothing really here unexpected. McCain beat Huck. Fred came in third again.

Fred Thompson's Mother is in the hospital currently, don't know how serious. Fred went back to Tennessee and will decide from there to stay in the race or drop out.


Early in the day Nevada was called for Obama with 83% of the vote. As precincts reported in Hillary gained ground and ended up winning with 51%. One of these days the media will learn not to declare a winner until they are REALLY REALLY sure.

Delegate count updated:

Romney 66
McCain 38
Huckabee 26
Thompson 8
Paul 6
Rudy 1


Obama 38
Clinton 36
Edwards 18

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