Romney Drops Presidential Bid

In a stunning and sobering move Mitt Romney suspended his presidential bid today. That effectively locks up the nomination for the worst possible GOP candidate John McCain.

I hearby renounce my affiliation with the Republican party.

Thompson
Tancredo
Hunter
Romney
Huckabee
Brownback
Richardson
Ron Paul
Obama
McCain
Hillary

I will not vote for John McCain.

News link at FOX

Gut check

Well Super Tuesday is over. It's late in the day on Wednesday. I waited until later today to post as I wanted to go over California and crunch numbers of upcoming States and possibilities.

McCain is going to be the GOP nominee. That's all there is to it. If Huckabee drops out now it helps McCain. If Romney drops out now it *may* help Huckabee but Huckabee isn't getting the nomination no matter how much help he gets.

If Romney and Huckabee stay in they could force a brokered convention, but that also gives the nomination to McCain as a brokered convention will stay with the establishment (McCain) and if it looks like not then McCain will call in favors.

Thank you Huckabee for giving McCain the nomination.

Now far as I go I don't get to vote until May 27th. I'm not going to vote unless there is a miracle.

The GOP has spoken and they want McCain. Well I don't want the GOP any longer if they want to vote in a back stabber.

I've voted in every election since I turned 18. I'm not voting in this one because I refuse to vote for McCain no matter what. I don't care who McCain's VP pick would be. Anyone running with McCain is just as much of a traitor to the conservative base of the GOP.

Who cares if Hillary or Obama is the Dem nominee. I'd rather the country go to hell under a Democrat than a Republican.

I'm done unless a miracle happens.

Final Delegate count until a nominee is declared:

GOP
McCain 680
Romney 270
Huckabee 176
Paul 16

DEM
Hillary 818
Obama 730

West Virgina back room deals

Earlier today I mentioned that in the second string of balloting McCain voters voted against Romney by going for Huckabee and that the real winner was McCain.

Well I was going through some numbers between that post and the news piece I'll link later.

First Ballot
Romney 41
Huckabee 33
McCain 15
Paul 10

Second
Huck 52
Romney 47
McCain 1

14% of McCain went to Huck. Paul's 10% split even to Romney/Huck. It's also possible that ALL of McCain went to Huck and the 1% McCain picked up were Paul people.

I posted over at FreeRepublic:

Something stinks in WV. For second round balloting all the original Huck and Romney voters kept with their candidate.

ALL the McCain voters went to Huck even though their candidate was still in.

Looks like Ron Paul voters went 5, 4, 1 respectively. Paul may have gone 5, 5 and 1% of McCain voters weren’t in on the game.

Either way point being that McCain voters colluded and went 100% to Huck. If McCain’s 15% had gone even 10% Huck and 5% Romney I would believe that was not colluded and self choice, but 14 or 15% (depending on what Ron Paul’s 10 did) is collusion.

The fix was in. McCain could afford to lose WV to Huck but he couldn’t afford to lose it to Romney.

Dirty yes, but legal, and why caucuses suck.

Huck supporters are all cheering and happy right now but I actually feel sorry for Huck because he is gonna get kicked to the curb by McCain when it’s all over and Huck supporters haven’t figured that out.

Well it turns out that I was right. Fox News posted this article sometime after my post and number crunching.

The highlight was:

But before Huckabee’s surprising turnaround in the second round, McCain delegates told FOX News they had been instructed by the campaign to throw their support to Huckabee.

McCain delegate John Vuolo said former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer approached him and other McCain supporters at the convention and told them he had spoken to McCain, and that the best thing to do was to support Huckabee in the hope that Huckabee could beat Romney in this winner-take-all state.

So it looks like my gut reaction and number crunching proved to be correct. McCain sacrificed West Virginia to keep Romney from collecting the 18 delegates.

McCain was the real winner, not Huckabee.

Reason Caucuses SUCK

In West Virginia today Romney took 41% of the vote in the first balloting.

Now if it was normal primary this would have given him West Virginia's 18 delegates. However WV runs caucuses.

Huckabee came in second and McCain third. If you don't place in the top three you're out, so Paul got dropped.

In the second string of balloting McCain voters voted against Romney by going for Huckabee giving Huck the 51% needed to win the caucus.

West Virginia with 18 delegates goes to Huckabee.

Who was the real winner? John McCain.

It's Super Tuesday!

Way too many States to list. I'll just update delegate counts tomorrow sometime.

Maine slipped in their GOP Caucuses over the weekend. Romney got something like 52% (for those bad at math that's more than everyone else combined).

Ron Paul ALMOST came in second but was beat by McCain by only a few percentage points. Huckabee came in a distant fourth.

Delegate counts have not been updated to reflect this but I *think* it is McCain 97, Romney 92 making it a dead heat going into Super Tuesday.

California is in play with latest polls showing 38% tie to Romney and McCain.

Florida dropouts

Well looks like McCain takes Florida on the GOP side putting him out in front. Who would have thought months ago when McCain was thinking about dropping out due to campaign financial problems (that CFR has gotta hurt) that he would be on top going into Super Tuesday.

There has been mixed reports that independents were voting in the Republican primary though. Not sure if that effects anything but the GOP was supposed to be a closed primary meaning that only registered Republicans could vote. Polls show most independents vote McCain.

Rumor mill today is that Rudy is going to drop out and endorse McCain. I'd say not good for Romney except Rudy doesn't have much support.

Hillary took Florida but since Florida jumped cut ahead in line the DNC stripped the DEM Florida delegates. Hillary of course is trying to get the delegates reinstated...that would put her ahead in pledged delegates. So dirty deeds on both sides.

John Edwards is going to drop out today leaving the DEM race between Hillary and Obama.

Delegate count updated:

GOP (needs 1191)

McCain 95
Romney 67
Huckabee 26
Paul 6

DEM (needs 2025)

Obama 63
Hillary 48

Florida Primary

Here we go.

Latest GOP polls putting Florida at a dead heat between Romney and McCain. Rudy and Huck tied for third. So far this election cycle the GOP polls have been almost spot on.

Florida is a winner take all State with 57 delegates up for grabs. That means even if a candidate wins by only 1 vote all 57 delegates go to him. Seems Florida is yet again going to be a huge factor in the elections.

I'm not even going to venture a guess on Florida. McCain did get a late surge partially due to his dishonest claim that Romney supported a surrender date in Iraq...McCain's advert left off the next sentence in Romney's interview where Romney point blank said "I would veto any bill that contained time tables for withdrawal."

For Romney's part he has been gaining momentum ever since Fred Thompson dropped out.

If Romney wins he'll probably have the momentum to take Super Tuesday.

If McCain wins that puts McCain ahead but Romney can hold on till at least Super Tuesday.

If Rudy or Huck win then it becomes an even closer three way race.

If anyone but Rudy wins then Rudy is done.

Stay tuned...

More on the Nevada vote

In the interest of full disclosure I admit I am LDS. However I keep my religion out of politics and my politics out of religion. The next few posts though I'm going to have to dwell into religion and Romney.

The first of these posts is further looking at the 94% of the Mormon vote that Romney got in Nevada. I'm sure at this point in time (now that we are down to three effectively) Utah, Idaho, Arizona and California LDS will follow suit. States that have already voted we don't have as specific demographic information that we had in Nevada so one can't say if Wyoming for example got 94% of the LDS vote going Romney.

Take your average Mormon who is politically active and would vote in the primaries.

Now you have the front runner choices of Romney, McCain, and Huckabee. Lets say for arguement sake that Romney is NOT a Mormon.

Now who does the Mormon vote for?

Answer is still Romney.

Why? Because Huck and McCain both have record of anti-Mormon rhetoric. Huck posing the fake question of "Don't Mormons believe Jesus and Satan are brothers" and McCain's campaign eluding to the Mormon church supporting Hamas and treating women like the Taliban.

Imo McCain's campaign statements were worse then Huck's supposedly honest(yea right) question.

Enter Romney who hasn't said anything about other candidates religions at all and recognizes that if he was President he would need the prayers of all faiths.

Romney LDS or not out of the three front runners GOP LDS voters are going to vote Romney because of the treatment the other two have given the religion.

Sure there was still Ron Paul, Rudy, or Fred Thompson to vote for but come on...do any of these guys really have a shot? Incidentally Ron Paul did get more of the LDS vote then Rudy, Huck, or Fred combined.

Fred Thompson out :(

"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people." - Fred Thompson

Well it was short lived but Fred went All-In in South Carolina and came up short.

Fred
Hunter
Tancredo
Romney
No Vote

We'll see what that does to the Florida Primaries, Jan 29th '08.

The (non) Mormon factor - Romney wins Nevada

Nevada:

Romney handily won the Nevada Caucus on the GOP side. It didn't take long (all of about an hour) for the mainstream media and blogs to point out that the "Mormon vote" gave Romney the victory.

This is not only incorrect it's also dangerous reporting.

Here is some math on the numbers. 44,315 votes were counted. 51% of those for Romney at 22,646. Source: The Nevada GOP caucus. According to entrance polls Mormons made up 26% of the vote and voted a resounding 95% for Romney. That's about where the MSM and blogs stop at claiming it was the Mormon vote that caused Romney to win.

Lets look at the numbers.

11522 Mormons voted. Of them 10946 voted Romney (the others split McCain and Paul for about 288 each).

If no Mormons showed up at all Romney still would have won:

#1 Romney: 11700
#2 Paul: 5796
#3 McCain: 5362

If the same amount of Mormons voted but split in percentages Romney still would have won:

Total votes (without Mormons)
32793

Percents (without Mormons)
Romney: 35.68
Paul: 17.67
McCain: 16.35

11522 Mormons voted split on percents and added to candidates:

#1 Romney: 15811
#2 Paul: 7832
#3 McCain: 7246

Everyone else needs the Mormon vote, Romney doesn't.

The only way Romney would have lost is if greater than 52% of Mormons voted for a single candidate BESIDES Romney, and it would have had to have been Ron Paul. McCain would have needed 58% of the Mormon vote. That's IF the other Mormon voters ALSO did not vote for Romney. Further down more of the vote you need. For irony, Hunter needed 94% of the Mormon vote to beat Romney. (Hunter dropped out of the race before the SC primaries were closed).

South Carolina:

Nothing really here unexpected. McCain beat Huck. Fred came in third again.

Fred Thompson's Mother is in the hospital currently, don't know how serious. Fred went back to Tennessee and will decide from there to stay in the race or drop out.

Democrats:

Early in the day Nevada was called for Obama with 83% of the vote. As precincts reported in Hillary gained ground and ended up winning with 51%. One of these days the media will learn not to declare a winner until they are REALLY REALLY sure.

Delegate count updated:

GOP
Romney 66
McCain 38
Huckabee 26
Thompson 8
Paul 6
Rudy 1

DEM

Obama 38
Clinton 36
Edwards 18

Playing the Numbers

Delegate counts again updated in various places. Even CNN is stripping delegates now. Updated sidebar.

GOP (needs 1191)
Romney 46
McCain 19
Huckabee 15
Thompson 6
Paul 2
Hunter 1
Rudy 0

DEM (needs 2025)
Obama 25
Hillary 24
Edwards 18

Michigan Primaries - The Morning After

Commentary reports starting to come in. Last time I mentioned it I was talking about how commentators were telling Mitt Romney to drop out because he couldn't win (even though he was first in delegate count).

Now commentators have a new spin on Romney...he won Michigan because there was not a credible candidate on the Democrat side so in protest many Democrats voted Republican specifically for Romney. The argument here is of course that Romney is a Democrat and not a Republican.

No mention of course about John "I thought about joining the Democrat party in 2004" McCain.

Of the moderate Republicans (RINO's to hard core 100% conservatives) on the ballots Romney is actually the least RINO of them all.

Makes me wonder if McCain had won the Michigan primary if the commentators would have been talking about Leiberman telling independants and democrats to vote McCain or if they still would have been telling Romney to drop out because he can't win (Romney still would have been in the lead for delegates with a second place showing).

Current delegate count:

GOP (needs 1191)
Romney 36
McCain 19
Huckabee 19
Thompson 6
Paul 2
Hunter 1
Rudy 0

DEM (needs 2025)
Obama 25
Hillary 24
Edwards 18

Michigan Primary - The evening of

Results for Michigan are in:

GOP
Romney
McCain
Huckabee

DEM
Clinton
Undecided

I miss-spoke in my post this morning. Clinton was the only major candidate on the Dem ballot. The choices were between her, uncommited, Kucinich, Dodd, and Gravel. Even being the only major candidate Clinton only managed about 56% with Uncommited coming in at 39%.

Delegate counts updated on right sidebar.

Next stop: Nevada and South Carolina, Jan 19

Michigan Primary - The morning of

Projections for Michigan today:

GOP
Romney
McCain
Huckabee

This is gonna be close. McCain might have gotten a bump from NH and could pull of a win here. Polls have Romney leading but they are WELL within the margin of error. Think average is about 2pts ahead with if the margins fail could up McCain as far as 6pnts in the lead. Course we saw from New Hampshire on the Dem side that polls can be VERY VERY wrong.

DEM
Obama
Edwards
Clinton

The last week has not been good for Clinton at all. Just when she gets ahead again she opens her yap and says something stupid. Really the best campaign Clinton could run right now is name recognition. Edwards should do well in Michigan playing his class warfare game. Michigan is a pretty blue collar State which Edwards pretends to fit in with...while he's not getting $1000 hair cuts.

Delegate count games

If you look at the news web sites the delegate counts are off. I mentioned this in an earlier post.

CNN's count is showing pledged delegates, so in my book is accurate. Other places are counting unpledged in their numbers and putting them where they think they will go. Problem with counting unpledged delegates is the numbers will go stray depending on who is counting and who is reporting.

MSNBC is taking ALL of Thompson's, McCain's and Ron Paul's delegates and 5 of Romney's Delegates (these are all pledged BTW) at Iowa and putting them in Huckabee's bucket. Other States seem to be correct.

Fox News is reporting Real Clear Politics' numbers. They seem to be shuffling around the unpledged delegates only (unlike MSNBC who is stripping pledged delegates).

If you look at pledged or shuffle around unpledged then Romney is in the lead for the GOP. It's only if you start stripping pledged that Huck is in the lead.

Michigan Primary today. Results this evening sometime.

Fred Swinging - Target Huckabee

Caught this on YouTube, didn't watch the debate. Fred opens up on Huckabee.



Where has this Fred been for the last two months?

Delegate changes?

AP is reporting that the delegate counts are being mixed up. Several sources have my count (including CNN, Reliable Politics and Powerline). However an AP article is putting the count at:

GOP:
Huckabee 31
Romeny 19
McCain 7

Dem:
Clinton 187 delegates
Obama with 89
Edwards with 50

Now without a credit or source on this article I'm going to take it with a grain of salt. Figure the AP wants Huck and Clinton as the nominees and they'll work to get there. We've seen plenty of false stories so far and the actual race has been on for only a week now.

Pushing the dropout rate

So you've got this candidate who has gone through three primaries. He's placed second, first, then second. Doing so he's grabbed the most delegate count of any of the candidates. The candidate is in the lead, so what do bloggers, news, and pundits say?

That Romney should drop out now. What the fuck. That's all I have to say.

I've counted probably seven different news articles today saying that since Romney didn't place first in Iowa or New Hampshire he's losing and should just drop out now. Idiocy. You would think these so called journalists and professionals would just take the 20 seconds to look at what matters....the delegate count.

Now I'm a Fred supporter (Romney is my third choice after Hunter) but I'm also a realist. Since when does the LEADER of a race drop out.

Come on people grow a damned brain.

Even if Mitt places second in Michigan (which isn't a true winner-take-all) he's still going to be in the lead in delegates.

If this rate continues by the time Super Tuesday rolls around Mitt will have a handy lead and ready to take on Rudy. Rudy btw is doing among the worst but nobody is calling for him to drop out. Even Hunter and Paul have more delegates then Rudy does.

Aftermath - New Hampshire

Well Hillary's crying game turned out positive for her instead of it being the Howard (Yeeeaaar) Dean of 2008.

McCain as expected came up first in New Hampshire but not convinced he's going anywhere else.

Results:

GOP:
McCain
Romney
Huckabee

DEM:
Hillary
Obama
Edwards

That puts Romney ahead for delegates and Obama/Clinton pretty much tied (1 delegate difference).

Running Total Delegates:

GOP (needs 1191):
Romney 24
Huckabee 18
McCain 10

DEM (needs 2025):
Obama 25
Clinton 24
Edwards 18

Next stop January 15 in Michigan (Winner take all) both parties.

New Hampshire Primaries

Continuing primary predictions

GOP:
McCain
Romney
Thompson

Thompson will show third again, but the press will skip him and report on Huck and Rudy's placing. Expect Huck to finish third to last from here on out in the primaries

DEM:
Obama
Edwards
Hillary

Hillary may have placed second in New Hampshire except for her almost crying breakdown